Sluggish Multilateral Alliances in the “Indo-Pacific”
By Resident Researcher Haneen Jarkas
Since President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, his policies have significantly reduced the effectiveness of several U.S.-led security alliances in the Indo-Pacific aimed at countering Chinese influence. These include AUKUS (Australia, the UK, and the US), the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US), and JUSK (Japan, the US, and South Korea). ICGER’s 2024 Annual Geopolitical Report, published on February 21, 2025, noted in its Asia–Oceania section that: “As the current conservative Republican administration in Washington favors bilateral agreements over multilateral treaties, alliances like AUKUS, the Quad, and JUSK will become sluggish and less active, with the United States shifting focus towards bilateral deals with Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, and Australia.”
Since taking office, President Trump has met individually with leaders from member states of the three alliances, including a February 2025 meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a bid to bolster U.S.–India ties,[i] and a February 2025 meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to deepen U.S.–UK relations,[ii] without addressing AUKUS—the alliance linking London with Washington and Canberra in the Indo-Pacific.
Bilateral tensions have emerged as Trump has not held any official meetings with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese since regaining power, leading to domestic criticism in Australia regarding the state of U.S.–Australia relations.[iii] At the same time, Trump attempted to contact Prime Minister Modi four times but received no reply, indicating a decline in relations, particularly after Washington increased tariffs on India to 50% due to its ongoing imports of Russian oil.[iv]
On the military front, the United States carried out separate bilateral exercises with Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea, outside the frameworks of the three main alliances. It conducted Talisman Sabre 2025 with Australia in August 2025[v] and Tiger Triumph 2025 with India in April 2025.[vi] In contrast, there were no major drills under the banners of the Quad, JUSK, or AUKUS in 2025. For instance, AUKUS members did not organize alliance-branded exercises like Autonomous Warrior, which was held under AUKUS in October 2024.[vii] This highlights Washington’s focus on strengthening bilateral partnerships rather than multilateral formats.
That decline is also reflected in decreasing support for the AUKUS submarine package, introduced alongside the alliance in 2021 to provide Australia with advanced nuclear-powered submarines. In June 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense initiated a formal review of the A$368 billion (approximately US$240 billion) deal to evaluate its alignment with the Trump administration’s “America First” policy and U.S. defense industry interests.[viii]
The move occurred as Australia provided no clear commitments on how Virginia-class submarines would be deployed in wartime, despite Washington’s call for clarification regarding their role in a Taiwan conflict involving China.[ix] Additionally, AUKUS has delayed progress on the pact’s “second pillar,” which focuses on cooperation in AI, cyber, maritime capabilities, and advanced defense technologies. This delay highlights issues such as poor coordination, funding shortfalls, and unclear military commitments among the three partners, ultimately bringing the alliance closer to a symbolic gesture with limited practical impact.
JUSK also exhibited minimal or no visible activity in 2025. Meetings and drills involving the United States, South Korea, and Japan continued on a bilateral or trilateral basis, often without mentioning the alliance. For example, the July 2025 meeting of the three countries’ deputy foreign ministers focused on regional strategic cooperation and did not reference JUSK in their official statement.[x]
In 2025, U.S. activity in the Indo-Pacific region was particularly intense regarding bilateral agreements. The U.S. and Tokyo finalized a trade deal reducing tariffs on Japanese imports to 15%, with Japan also committing to invest US$550 billion in the U.S., and they established a “warfighting” command in Tokyo.[xi] Similarly, with South Korea, a deal was reached that cut tariffs to 15% and involved a US$350 billion investment pledge from Seoul.[xii] The agreement with Indonesia lowered U.S. tariffs on Indonesian imports to 19%, in return for removing 99% of duties on U.S. goods.[xiii] It also included purchases of US$15 billion in energy resources, US$4.5 billion in agricultural products, and an order for 50 Boeing aircraft, including many 777s. With Australia, two memoranda of understanding were signed to enhance cooperation in defense industries, along with a separate MoU for joint development of the PrSM precision strike missile.[xiv]
Overall, these bilateral agreements indicate a strategic move away from multilateral groups like AUKUS, the Quad, and JUSK. Instead, the focus is on building stronger one-on-one ties with key Indo-Pacific allies. This strategy aligns with the administration’s desire for direct economic and strategic benefits, while reducing dependence on broader frameworks that have not proven very effective.
[i] “President Donald Trump Hosts Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-meets-with-prime-minister-narendra-modi-of-india/
[ii] “Donald Trump’s meeting with Keir Starmer: key takeaways,” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/27/trump-starmer-meeting
[iii] “Australian PM’s Meeting with Trump Scrapped after G7 Departure,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-17/australian-pm-s-meeting-with-trump-scrapped-after-g-7-departure?embedded-checkout=true
[iv] “Steep US tariffs set to hit Indian exports from Wed; Modi avoids four calls from Trump, claims German media,” https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202508/1341813.shtml
[v] “EXERCISE TALISMAN SABRE 2025 CONCLUDES,” http://navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/display-news/Article/4263100/exercise-talisman-sabre-2025-concludes/
[vi] “U.S.-Indian forces go high-tech at Tiger Triumph 2025,” https://www.cpf.navy.mil/Newsroom/News/Article/4151944/us-indian-forces-go-high-tech-at-tiger-triumph-2025/
[vii] “AUKUS Partners Complete Successful Tests of Autonomous and Networked Systems in Maritime Experimentation,” https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3944394/aukus-partners-complete-successful-tests-of-autonomous-and-networked-systems-in/
[viii] “The U.S. Asia-Pacific Strategy Faces Intense Headwinds,”
[ix] “US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan,” https://www.ft.com/content/41e272e4-5b25-47ee-807c-2b57c1316fe4
[x] “US, Japan, South Korea hold trilateral meeting in Tokyo,”
[xi] “Pete Hegseth says US is setting up a ‘war-fighting’ base in Japan,” https://www.ft.com/content/d61f42f7-89dd-49be-885d-9bd1fd84e41d
[xii] “The art of the alliance: 3 takeaways from the Trump-Lee summit,” https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-art-of-the-alliance-3-takeaways-from-the-trump-lee-summit/
[xiii] “US and Indonesia reach tariff deal,” https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq0ln6z6lo
[xiv] “Australia signs long-range precision strike missile agreement with the United States,” https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2025-06-06/australia-signs-long-range-precision-strike-missile-agreement-united-states