Washington Urges Americans to Leave Mali Two Weeks After ICGER’s Warning on Jihadism in Africa
On Tuesday, October 28, 2025, the United States advised its citizens in Mali to depart the country promptly using commercial flights, citing the “ongoing armed clashes between Malian government forces and terrorist elements around the capital, Bamako,” and warning that the security situation in the city was becoming increasingly unpredictable.
The advisory was issued merely two weeks subsequent to the publication of a comprehensive study by the International Center for Geopolitical, Economic, and AI Studies (ICGER), dated October 14, 2025. In the study titled “A Jihadist Continent: The New Global Threat Taking Over Africa,” ICGER President Dr. Mohammad Walid Youssef issued a warning regarding the increasing influence of Islamist militant groups in the Sahel and Sahara regions, cautioning that these groups were nearing the point of gaining control in multiple nations, whilst simultaneously broadening their operational scope and exacerbating their threat across various areas.
The U.S. Embassy in Mali stated that ongoing issues with the country’s infrastructure, such as persistent shortages of gasoline and diesel, the closure of schools and universities nationwide, and ongoing armed conflict between the Malian government and terrorist groups near Bamako, are leading to an unpredictable security situation in the capital.
The embassy noted that Bamako’s airport remains open and advised U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights, “as overland routes to neighboring countries may not be safe for travel due to terrorist attacks along national highways.”[i]
In his October study, Dr. Youssef stated that “the Islamist groups that have proliferated for over a decade across the Sahel and Sahara—ranging from Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) to Islamic State affiliates, Boko Haram, and al-Shabaab—have become increasingly perilous since 2015. Their influence has expanded annually amid the neglect and complacency of major global powers, which have largely overlooked their proliferation and escalating dominance over regions where they previously lacked presence.”
He further explained that the global powers, which launched the war on terror following September 11, appear to be tired of the effort. They’ve grown weary from the high costs, extensive surveillance, and military operations across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It seems they’ve forsaken the campaign, leaving local nations to manage on their own, while shifting their strategic priorities towards Russia and China, as well as addressing missile threats from North Korea and Iran.
Dr. Youssef warned that “this strategic shift from confronting militant groups to refocusing on conventional military threats will pose serious dangers in the coming years, and the consequences will be beyond any state’s ability to contain or reverse.”
He forecasted that “Islamist groups throughout the Sahel and Sahara are advancing to seize control of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, while extending their reach into Nigeria, Chad, Somalia, Benin, and Togo, eventually covering Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. Their influence is expected to span from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic, crossing expansive deserts, savannas, and jungles.”
Dr. Youssef issued a clear warning: “Once this expansion happens, no coalition of nations, regardless of their strength, will be able to defeat terrorism, even if their armies unite.” He explained that ICGER’s choice to carry out this detailed study was driven by “a duty to reveal the truth, alert about an imminent danger, and remind regional and global powers of a threat that exceeds, in both scale and impact, the Gaza conflict that started in October 2023.”
[i] https://ml.usembassy.gov/security-alert-bamako-mali-october-28-2025alert/