Saudi Arabia, Pakistan sign strategic defense pact; move mirrors forecast by Dr. Youssef
On September 17, 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint strategic defense agreement, stating that “any external armed attack on Riyadh or Islamabad shall be considered an attack on both.” This wording aligns with a long-anticipated scenario proposed by Dr. Mohammad Walid Youssef, president of the International Center for Geopolitical and Economic Research and AI (ICGER). He has argued in his books and studies that Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Gulf states are likely to align with Sunni-majority Pakistan to safeguard themselves against Shiite-majority Iran and its regional allies.
The Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. “This agreement, which reflects the shared commitment of both nations to enhance their security and to achieving security and peace in the region and the world, aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression. The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.”[i]
Dr. Youssef’s earlier forecast
In a study published on May 19, 2025, titled “Will the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Hold? The India-Pakistan Stress Test,” Dr. Youssef details the direct military clashes between India and Pakistan following an attack on the Pahalgam tourist resort in Indian-controlled Kashmir, which resulted in at least 26 deaths, mostly Indians. He observed that countries like Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Algeria, and Sudan tended to support India during its conflicts with Pakistan in 1965 and 1971. This support was influenced by India and Egypt’s leadership roles within the Non-Aligned Movement and their shared socialist principles, which unified these nations intellectually.
He added: “This upcoming conflict will push the Islamic world to align – politically, militarily, and financially – with Pakistan against India. It will cause the unraveling of the India–Saudi strategic partnership, the end of the India–UAE strategic partnership, the nullification of India–Egypt strategic cooperation, and the formation of an Islamic alliance among Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, potentially including other Muslim nations.”
He emphasized that “Saudi Arabia, in particular, has no alternative but to maintain this alliance, as Pakistan is prepared to engage in war and defend the Islamic holy sites in Mecca and Medina, even potentially resorting to nuclear weapons to protect them and the Saudi ruling family if faced with a severe existential threat. Consequently, Saudi Arabia sees no option but to align closely with Pakistan in a unified alliance…”
In his 2016 book, The Essence of the International System, Dr. Youssef explored the likelihood Gulf alliance with Pakistan. In the chapter “Vacuum, Conflict, and the Rise of Poles,” he states: “…the Sunni Arab states in the Gulf are likely to face a vacuum and a significant crisis; the only options are to form an alliance with one or more of three Sunni countries—Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey—or with all of them, since they share similar concerns about Iran’s rise to becoming a strong regional pole and potentially a global one in the future international cycle.”
He continued: “To avoid the encroaching vacuum, these states must form alliances with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt. The vacuum emanating from Nigeria and Ethiopia will threaten nearby countries, extending to Sudan and Chad, while another gap will open into Tunisia from Libya. Gulf nations will have little choice but to forge strong alliances with those states that hold vast resources in certain sectors but lack capabilities in others.”
He noted that despite Egypt and Pakistan’s demographic strength, large armies, significant youth populations, and Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, both nations are still plagued by severe and persistent economic crises.
He mentioned that Pakistan needs $1 trillion in the coming decade to avoid internal fragmentation and to stay competitive with its rapidly growing neighbor, India, which is on track to become a major global power in the next international cycle. If Sunni Arab Gulf states can offer the necessary economic and financial support to Egypt and Pakistan, they can prevent the rise of the Houthis and Iraqi, Lebanese, and local Shiite groups in those countries. This assistance would also help contain Iran’s expanding influence into Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and other areas, addressing the power vacuum before Iran extends its reach further.
He concluded that Arab armies and Egypt’s forces would likely struggle to counter Iran’s robust military and Shiite movements, given Iran’s extensive conventional capabilities. Only Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent can stop a nuclear-armed Iran from advancing. However, Pakistan won’t fight alongside the Arab Gulf states for free; it will see this as an opportunity to strengthen its nation, unify its regions, connect its parts, and build a resilient economy to withstand India’s growth. Therefore, $1 trillion should be allocated to Pakistan so it can join these states in their upcoming intense conflict with Iran, its Shiite allies, and their partners in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
[i] Saudi Press Agency, Wednesday 25/03/1447 (AH) https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/w2399706