Will Nicolás Maduro Meet the Fate of Assad and Ghani?
Until 2015, Hugo Chávez’s approach remained popular among many Venezuelans. However, this changed when Nicolás Maduro’s regime—Chávez’s successor—lost the parliamentary elections, the last transparent and democratic vote in Venezuela. Maduro conceded defeat, with the right-wing coalition winning 99 of 177 seats—its first such victory since 2000.
This outcome resulted from the exhaustion of social policies established and sustained by Chávez and later Maduro, which had benefited large parts of Venezuelan society. When global oil prices declined in late 2014, reducing significant revenues for the Venezuelan government, the country faced extreme inflation—reaching six figures—coupled with shortages of goods and rising unemployment among youth and workers. These conditions fueled anger among many social groups against Maduro’s regime, leading them to support the right-wing opposition.
Nonetheless, Maduro refused to step down and participated in several presidential and parliamentary elections, which many observers considered fraudulent, flawed, and illegitimate. During Donald Trump’s first term as U.S. president, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton were determined to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, employing all possible tactics—especially in 2019, when the U.S. government in January refused to acknowledge Maduro’s swearing-in for a new term and instead recognized Juan Guaidó, leader of the Venezuelan National Assembly, as Venezuela’s legitimate president.
Nineteen European countries aligned with this stance, joined by Canada, Brazil—which was under the former right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro—and Colombia, governed by former president Iván Duque Márquez. Pompeo and Bolton aimed to persuade President Trump to initiate a military operation to remove Maduro. This came after Guaidó’s unsuccessful 2019 attempt to lead a military coup, his failure to gather large crowds to overthrow Maduro and take control of Caracas, and his inability to secure support from Latin American nations or humanitarian aid for Venezuela. Guaidó’s position deteriorated to the point where he sought protection from Western ambassadors at Caracas Airport, fearing arrest by Maduro’s forces upon his return.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump had grown tired of John Bolton’s attempts to involve him in a war in Venezuela, as Trump wanted to avoid what he called “endless wars,” which he blamed on his predecessors—conflicts he believed brought no real benefit to the United States.
Consistent with his tendency to reverse his stances, Trump now seems committed in 2025 and early 2026 to initiating a military operation in Venezuela. His goal is to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro and dismantle his socialist government, while also taking control of the country’s extensive oil, gas, and underground resources. The primary motivation behind this effort is Trump’s desire to reshape the global energy landscape.
The United States has imposed sanctions on India to pressure it into stopping the purchase of Russian oil and gas. Similarly, Washington aims to reduce China’s imports of Russian energy and has requested that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan halt Russian gas imports. If the U.S. succeeds in gaining control over Venezuela’s massive oil reserves—along with its own shale oil boom of the past decade—it could fundamentally reshape the global energy market. This shift would break the dominance of OPEC and Gulf Arab oil producers over global supplies, especially considering the sanctions—both international and unilateral—that limit Iran’s oil and gas exports.
This transformation would detach American foreign policy—both in the Middle East and internationally—from the dominance of the Gulf Arab monarchies. As a result, Washington could concentrate its strategic efforts on countering China and Russia, shifting its strategic resources from the Middle East to East Asia and Europe.
It is worth noting that Venezuela’s proven oil reserves total 300 billion barrels, positioning it as the leading country globally in this regard, surpassing Saudi Arabia’s 267 billion barrels.
Maduro’s downfall, however, would not be caused solely by an American military effort. It would also result from a confluence of internal structural factors similar to those that led to the collapse of Ashraf Ghani’s government in Afghanistan in August 2021 and Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in December 2024: political corruption, economic decline, increased narcotics trafficking, military vulnerabilities, social divisions, and authoritarian tendencies, among others identified by our AI analysis. The program predicts that Nicolás Maduro’s regime will collapse similarly to Ghani and Assad—unless Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea move quickly to deplete U.S. resources and entangle Washington in a Venezuelan quagmire, reminiscent of past U.S. conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
However, such a counterstrategy is very unlikely. Russia is too focused on its war in Ukraine, even if it is willing. Iran, meanwhile, does not have the resources or geopolitical influence to help Maduro, as it is busy with its conflict with Israel and the US. This situation makes China the only power capable of challenging the US in Venezuela—potentially distracting Washington from Taiwan, which Beijing aims to invade after 2027.
Maduro potentially plans to fight a guerrilla war if the US invades, with support from allies. He has organized militias composed of supporters and Chávez loyalists, equipped with light and medium weapons, spread throughout Venezuela’s urban and rural areas. Maduro asserts that eight million Venezuelans are prepared to defend the country and oppose a US invasion.
Therefore, the question remains: Will Nicolás Maduro face the fate of Bashar al-Assad and Ashraf Ghani?