Intense Afghanistan-Pakistan Fighting Eases with Saudi Mediation: ICGER Prediction Comes True
Heavy fighting broke out along the Afghan–Pakistani border on October 11, 2025, involving artillery exchanges, cross-border raids, and intense gunfire across various frontier zones. The clashes led to the closure of key crossings and the suspension of trade between the two nations until Saudi and Qatari mediation helped de-escalate the situation.
The developments corroborate the projections outlined in the 2024 Annual Geopolitical Report published by ICGER on February 21, 2025. In the section concerning Asia and Oceania, the report cautioned that “border incidents between Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely to escalate into violent confrontations between their military forces, with the potential to trigger conflict in 2025–2026,” while also noting that “nations such as Saudi Arabia are anticipated to intervene in order to mitigate tensions.”
Violent confrontations occurred on October 11 and 12, 2025, along the Durand Line dividing the two nations, involving Taliban forces and the Pakistani military engaging in intense gunfire and artillery exchanges. There were claims of airstrikes on border posts in regions such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
The Taliban government in Kabul announced that they killed 58 Pakistani soldiers and took control of about 25 border posts. Pakistan, on its part, reported 23 of its troops killed and claimed its counterattacks destroyed “hundreds of Taliban positions,” resulting in the death of over 200 fighters. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed that there were 20 casualties among Afghan forces.[i]
Major border crossings like Torkham and Chaman, along with secondary routes such as Kharlachi, Angur Ada, and Ghulam Khan, were closed, stopping cross-border trade.
On October 12, Afghanistan announced that it had ceased hostilities “at the request of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.” Both Gulf states issued statements expressing concern over the border clashes and urging restraint.
The ICGER Annual Report previously warned that “conditions in Pakistan and along its border with Afghanistan are worsening,” citing “analysis of event frequency and volatility indicating increased instability in the area.”
It also projected that “border developments between Afghanistan and Pakistan are moving toward violent clashes between their militaries, which could escalate into war in 2025 or 2026, leading countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Iran to intervene to repair relations between the two.”
[i] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgmzmn4971zo