As Forecasted, “Open War” Between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2026
From Thursday into Friday, February 26–27, 2026, Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged artillery and mortar fire along their border. This escalation followed Pakistan’s airstrikes that reportedly targeted several Afghan cities, including Kabul. Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, declared that “Our patience has now run out. Now it is open war between us.” This development mirrors a scenario outlined by Dr. Mohammad Walid Youssef, ICGER president, in the 2025 Annual Geopolitical Report, where he predicted that the conflict between the two nations would escalate into a major border war along the Durand Line.
After the strikes on Friday, Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif said in an X post that Pakistan had hoped for peace in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO forces in 2021 and expected the Taliban, which seized power in the country, to focus on the welfare of the Afghan people and regional stability. Instead, he said that the Taliban had turned Afghanistan “into a colony of India,” and he accused Afghanistan of “exporting terrorism.”[i]
Dr. Youssef, in the Asia section of ICGER’s Annual Geopolitical Report, had stated in his forecast that “the dynamics of conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan will lead, in the summer of 2026, to a major border war along the Durand Line.”
He explained that this outcome would result from efforts by the ‘Taliban–Pakistan’ movement and other Islamist groups to seize power, take over the government in Islamabad, and establish an Islamic emirate akin to the one in Kabul.
The recent developments reaffirm that ICGER’s scientific approach to political analysis is based on rigorous and objective methods. According to the center’s analysis of Pakistan–Afghanistan relations, war was expected to occur in the summer of 2026; however, hostilities started early in 2026 and could escalate further, potentially involving the entire region. Regional states and major powers might then intervene to broker a ceasefire and encourage negotiations for lasting peace. Nevertheless, this outcome remains uncertain and challenging, and the two sides could still find themselves in another prolonged conflict.
[i] https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-pakistan-airstrikes-open-war-98927b79ee9ef5741bf0804956d3c2e6