Iran touts North Korean lesson on deterrence; balance of power needs parity with Israel, MP says
Ahmad Naderi, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s Presidium, stated in an interview with Russia’s Novosti agency on April 6, 2025, that “Historical experience, especially the U.S.’s dealings with countries like North Korea, proves that possessing nuclear capability greatly increases the cost of any potential military action.”[i] This confirms what was advanced by the president of the International Center for Geopolitical and Economic Research in the third part of the “Return of the Two Lions” series published on April 23, 2024. Under the title “The Third Iranian Expansion into the Middle East,” he explained that “through experience, analogy, and historical evidence, no country that has developed both nuclear and missile programs simultaneously has failed to become a regional, or eventually a supra-regional, power. With additional elements, such countries could even rise to a global leadership position. Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea serve as proof of this.”
The Iranian lawmaker referenced North Korea’s situation during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, where Washington refrained from military action despite verbal threats because Pyongyang had an advanced nuclear program and missile capabilities.
In his study, Dr. Youssef stated that “it goes without saying that Iran will change its nuclear doctrine and will—upon possessing nuclear capability—adhere to Samuel Huntington’s advice that the United States will not fight you if you have nuclear weapons.”
Naderi stated that achieving a balance of power in the Middle East depends on Iran and Israel having similar military capabilities. This aligns with Dr. Youssef’s study published on November 18, 2024, titled “Restoring Regional Balance in the Middle East: A Nuclear Test is Iran’s Last-Resort Maneuver.” Youssef argued that “nothing will save Iran—with its allies weakened in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen—except for building, quickly testing, and revealing a nuclear weapon to the world.”
He noted that Iran is at a crossroads: either it will proceed with testing a nuclear weapon in early 2025 to shield itself from an American–Sunni Arab economic and military campaign and to restore regional balance after Hamas’s defeat and Hezbollah’s losses, or it will avoid such action. If Iran refrains, this coalition might turn its focus inward, risking a repeat of history—the descendants of ʿUmar ibn al-Khaṭṭāb striking again, as they did after the Arab Muslims’ 642 CE victory at the Battle of Nahavand during ʿUmar ibn al-Khaṭṭāb’s caliphate—ushering a return to the past.
[i] https://www.profilenews.com/en/iranian-official-stresses-importance-of-nuclear-deterrence-capability/