Iran’s Upcoming Changes: A Win for Regime Survival and Easing Religious Restrictions, Says Dr. Youssef
Iran’s army chief, Major General Amir Hatami, declared that Iran achieved victory in its 12-day conflict with Israel in June 2025 by preventing what he called Israel’s predefined aims: “to undermine the Islamic Republic and its independence.” His statement mirrored the analysis of Dr. Mohammad Walid Youssef, president of the International Center for Geopolitical, Economic, and AI Studies (ICGER). In his June 25, 2025, report titled “Between June 1967 and June 2025: Israel Dominates the Middle East,” Dr. Youssef argued that “Iran will claim victory in this war for one reason only: the survival of its regime.”
Hatami added that the success in the 12-day defensive campaign was the result of three key elements: the decisive leadership of the commander-in-chief, the Armed Forces’ active role, and the steadfastness of the Iranian people. Speaking before the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee, Hatami said, “These factors led to our victory and the Zionist regime’s failure to achieve its goals against the Islamic Republic”, he said. He further stressed that throughout history, Iran has been vulnerable to aggression whenever its ruling system was weak. “However, during the eight-year Sacred Defense, under Imam Khomeini’s divine leadership and with the unity of the people and the Armed Forces, Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity were preserved”, Hatami said.[i]
Dr. Youssef noted that, “Although Iran faced a military defeat, it was not strategically defeated. It will argue victory based on the regime’s survival, considered Israel’s primary goal. Israel’s failure to overthrow the system will be seen as Iran’s triumph, even though there is no other supporting evidence.”
A Shift in Official Discourse
In recent months, Iranian official rhetoric has notably softened, moving away from extreme slogans like “erasing Israel from existence” and “death to America.” Instead, current statements emphasize readiness to respond to attacks and warnings to adversaries to avoid “mistakes” toward Iran. Notably, these comments have been made by army commanders rather than IRGC officials, a development that Dr. Youssef also foresaw. In his June study, he suggested that Iran is likely to undergo a significant reassessment in terms of its political, strategic, economic, media, social, and cultural aspects. This process could involve revisiting its long-standing view of the United States as the ‘Great Satan’ and redefining Israel and America as existential threats. Such a shift would transform the regime’s political and strategic messaging, leading to the disappearance of grand slogans like ‘Destroy Israel’ or ‘Burn Tel Aviv,’ once common among IRGC and military figures like Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Mohammad Kazemi, Ali Shademani, and Mohammad Bagheri.
Easing of Religious Restrictions
On the social front, Iran has undergone notable cultural changes, particularly regarding women’s dress codes. Mohammad Bahonar, a member of the Expediency Council, stated during a podcast debate that the government has officially ceased enforcing compulsory hijab. “The paradigms of the Islamic Republic are being gradually and softly reformed,” Bahonar said, adding there is currently no binding or enforceable law regarding hijab. “The system’s general decision is that there is no compulsory hijab law in force.”[ii]
Earlier in March, in a recent Fox News interview, President Pezeshkian reaffirmed his opposition to coercion, saying he “does not believe in forcing women to wear the hijab,” warning that the enforcement of such a law “could ignite social conflict and harm the people.”
Dr. Youssef also predicted these internal shifts, noting that following its conflict with Israel, Iran would focus on rebuilding its economy, implementing a broad development plan, updating civil and military infrastructure, and enhancing its military capabilities, specifically re-evaluating its missile and drone arsenals and investing in a more formidable air force. This period will also see a reconsideration of social conditions through relaxed religious restrictions, all while preserving the regime’s religious identity and hierarchy.
[i] https://nournews.ir/en/news/249420/12-day-war-on-Iran-exposed-enemy-lies-Army-chief
[ii] https://www.iranintl.com/en/202510068611