Scenario Outlined by ICGER for Yemen in 2023 Unfolds
Recently, Yemen and the broader region experienced their most serious military escalation in years. It started with a large, unexpected ground offensive by Yemen’s Ansar Allah (Houthis) on September 3, 2026, mainly targeting Taiz Governorate and the western coastal areas.
During their swift advance, the Houthis gained complete control of the strategically crucial island of Mayyun, thereby strengthening their hold over the vital Bab al-Mandab Strait.[1]
The offensive occurs within the timeframe specified by Dr. Mohammad Walid Youssef, President of ICGER, in his June 19, 2023, study titled “Winners and Losers: The First Geopolitical Law of the Middle East.”
In that study, Dr. Youssef forecasted that the Ansar Allah movement would “become a regional military power and present a real and substantial threat to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states within two or three years.” He also anticipated that the Houthis would undertake “military campaigns that would change the strategic balance” in the area.
In addition to ground combat, the Houthis have expanded the conflict into Saudi Arabia by launching intensive ballistic missile and drone attacks. These strikes have targeted critical Saudi Aramco facilities and civilian and economic sites in the southern regions of the Kingdom, including Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Najran.[2]
Dr. Youssef also cautioned that any settlements or partial agreements between Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government in Aden, as well as with the Ansar Allah movement in Sana’a, could lead to increased production of ballistic and cruise missiles, enhancements in their range and control systems, the creation of new drone manufacturing sites, extensive training for personnel on their production and operation, and the recruitment of thousands of new fighters into the movement.
[1] https://arabic.euronews.com/2026/09/11/houthis-yemen-clashes-trump-saudis-mohammed-bin-salman-bab-al-mandab-strait