Political Stability in Syria: Power Structures, Internal Dynamics, and Future Scenarios.
Dr. Ghiath R. Al Safadi
Dr. of International Criminal Law, lawyer, and researcher in legal and political affairs. Former Head of the Research and Studies Department at IHOPE – International Hope (Lebanon), and Consulting Director at ADICA Academy (United Kingdom).
numerous factors indicate an increasing state of structural fragility within al-Sharaa’s regime, potentially rendering political change in Syria a viable possibility rather than merely a theoretical hypothesis. Accordingly, this analysis focuses on indicators of change and its potential pathways, as well as the dynamics that may emerge from it, with particular attention to the possibility of reproducing the jihadist structure within the regime itself, based on the structural similarities between the composition of al-Sharaa’s regime and the former organizational structure of Hay at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The analysis also examines the potential implications of such change from the perspective of the positions of Syria’s various components, on the one hand, and the geostrategic calculations of regional and international powers, on the other: