Dr. Youssef’s Scenario Materializes Precisely: Saudi Air Cover for the Advance of the National Shield Forces in Yemen

On January 2, 2026, Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council Chairman Rashad al-Alimi announced the appointment of Hadramawt Governor Salem Al-Khanbashy as commander of the National Shield forces in the governorate. His mission is to restore security and order from the Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces after the United Arab Emirates declared the end of its military presence in Yemen.

The operation, overseen by the Hadramawt governor, occurred simultaneously with direct Saudi airstrikes as part of the Saudi-led Coalition to Restore Legitimacy.

At the same time, Emirati media accused Saudi Arabia of moving forces towards Hadramawt, claiming they are a mix of Islah (Muslim Brotherhood), Al-Qaeda, and Houthi members.

Dr. Mohammed Walid Youssef, President of ICGER, accurately predicted this scenario in his study titled “The Mukalla Incident and the Saudi–UAE Conflict: A Tear Beyond Repair,” published on 31 December 2025.

In the study, Dr. Youssef observed that “the Yemeni theater will be significantly impacted by the split between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, altering military and strategic balances in Yemen’s geopolitical landscape and conflict zone.”

He further stated, “Islah Party forces (Muslim Brotherhood) and remnants of the internationally recognized government’s forces will initiate a military campaign against the southern governorates currently under the control of the Southern Transitional Council. They will start their offensive from Marib, moving toward Al-Mahrah and Hadramawt to retake these regions.”

He further stated: “They will then proceed toward Shabwa and Al-Dhalea, moving on to Aden to retake Al-Maashiq Palace, a symbol of state sovereignty and legitimacy. Additionally, Saudi Arabia will supply air support for these ground forces during their future battles.”